The Four Scenarios Facing Israel as the U.S. Withdraws From the Iran Deal

editor Friday 15 June 2018 Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share by email Printer friendly

By Amos Yadlin and Ari Heistein.. President Trump’s decision to depart the JCPOA leaves Israel to try to advance its strategic objectives across a very different geopolitical landscape. President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal has left Israel to reassess its policy toward Iran—and how to advance its key national-security objectives: preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, thwarting Iran’s aspirations for hegemony, changing the fundamentally hostile and radical orientation of the regime, and preventing future military conflict. [Photo top right: President Trump meets with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office on March 5, 2018. | Photo credit: Kevin Lamarque / Reuters].  The deal made some progress on the first two fronts—delaying Iran’s nuclear-weapons program by more than a decade, and preventing war from breaking out in the near term—but failed on the other two metrics, fortifying the regime and giving it a free hand to build and use its conventional forces.

Tehran made better use of the time bought by the agreement, expanding its conventional capabilities to the point that its advanced missiles and militias have become nearly as dangerous as its, momentarily halted, nuclear threat. In fact, they are complementary components in a unified Iranian strategy to establish two mutually reinforcing strategic forces: the build-up of formidable conventional forces to guarantee impunity in the development of nuclear weapons, and the acquisition of a nuclear umbrella to support the expansion of conventional offensive capabilities throughout the region. And the post-deal influx of funds did not moderate Iran’s regional policies as some of the agreement’s architects had hoped, but instead allowed it to better fund them. Read the full story.

From:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/the-four-scenarios-facing-israel-as-the-us-withdraws-from-the-iran-deal/562457/

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